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Cloud9 dug another hole for themselves in the Rumble stage of the 2021 Mid-Season Invitational. As of Day 3 they stand at 1-5 in the Rumble stage, just one win above Pentanet.GG, but two short of qualifying over the next closest team. The situation is less dire than Cloud9’s previous Group C troubles, but their fate in this stage is not entirely in their own hands.

MAD Lions are the team that Cloud9 needs to finish above to make it out. The Europeans sit at 3-3 and are potentially the only team that Cloud9 can catch up to now that PSG Talon have a win over them, MAD and Royal Never Give Up.

What Cloud9 need to do to leave the Rumble stage

“Not ready to give up hope yet. #C9WIN #MSI2021,” the LCS Official account.

The way the group stage is set up, any team with seven losses is all but eliminated from the playoffs, barring any tiebreakers, so Cloud9 can only lose one game out of those four. Their last matchups are RNG, Pentanet.GG, PSG and MAD. Five wins is the magic number for MAD in this instance as well. That number of wins would push them over the edge for qualification.

MAD’s next slate of games include DWG KIA, Pentanet.GG, RNG and Cloud9. If MAD win two of those games before their matchup against Cloud9, they should move on to the playoff stage.

There are many possible scenarios for the MAD and Cloud9 dash for the final qualifying spot. C9 could win out, finish with a 5-5 record while MAD takes three of its final four, finishing 6-4, moving MAD on to the playoffs. Or MAD could lose its next four while C9 split their final games 2-2, putting both teams at 3-7 which would force a tiebreaker if C9 win the final MAD matchup. There is another scenario where both teams finish 4-5 before their match on the final day. That final game would decide who moves on. Then there are all the scenarios in between that involve PSG losing their games.

The most direct route for Cloud9 to make it out of the Rumble stage is to win their next four matches, which would put them at 5-5, while MAD blunders and loses three of their games. No matter which way the next slate of games goes for the other squads at MSI, Cloud9 need basically every game to qualify while praying MAD don’t put together two wins before their final game on Day 5.