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Galatasaray Esports v Beyond Gaming
|Metric||Galaxy Esports||Beyond Gaming|
|Market Odds||2.14 (+114)||1.71 (-141)|
|Implied Win Probability||46.73%||58.48%|
|Implied Win (Normalized)||44.42%||55.58%|
|Calculated Win Probability||85.24%||14.76%|
|Bet Size||Bet 72.30%||Bet @ odds > +925|
After a nail-biting tiebreaker for fourth place against Unicorns of Love, Beyond Gaming stay afloat for at least one match longer. They now face Galatasaray Esports in the Elimination Round of the Play-In Knockout Stage. The loser will pack up their bags, but each team has a good opportunity to prove themselves in this best-of-five match.
My model tilts even more in GS’s favor than it did in their first Play-In Stage clash. With a single-game win probability of around 75%, a best-of-five exaggerates that number out to an 85/15 split in their favor. The odds market believes that BYG are actually the stronger team with a 56/44 edge, which creates quite a large betting opportunity for us.
However, a 42% chance of a GS 3-0 and only a 3% chance of the reverse does seem quite aggressive. Doubly so, since BYG would traditionally be considered the stronger team, and by most accounts should come out ahead. With five games to find their fundamentals and play to their strengths, this should hardly be so lopsided.
So what’s behind this large disconnect?
The largest difference is region strength. While GS don’t exactly come from a powerhouse region either, the Pacific Championship Series seems fairly overrated, according to my model. PSG Talon, who share their region with BYG, routinely enjoy upward of a 75% win rate within the Pacific, and drop to just about an even 50% when competing elsewhere. This doesn’t bode well for BYG, who are not nearly as dominant within the PCS.
Individually, the roster of GS ranges from a 62% to 64% win rate (largely in their own region, of course), compared to the 57% to 60% spread of BYG. Not a huge difference, but a five percentage point spread isn’t the easiest hill to climb.
GS have also come together more cohesively as a team. Both teams enjoy elevated win rates compared to each players’ individual performance, but this effect is about twice as strong for GS. However, BYG have had a much more consistent roster recently, so this effect may be inflated for GS.
These two teams have not faced each other very often, coming from two different geographies. GS did take the victory over BYG in the Play-In group stage a couple of days ago, and it hardly felt like a fluke.
As a team, GS are simply better at accruing and maintaining a lead. Compared to BYG, they tend to win their games with higher gold, level, and objective differentials against their opponents. In short, when they win, they win by more, so an early lead can easily snowball out of control and leaves little room for a comeback.
Watch out for Onur Can “Bolulu” Demirol on GS and Chiu “Doggo” Tzu-Chuan on BYG. They have the largest sway on outcomes in my model, so a particularly good game from either could have a large impact on the flow of the match. Doggo’s Aphelios can be particularly dominant.
RED Canids v PEACE
|Market Odds||1.79 (-127)||2.02 (+102)|
|Implied Win Probability||55.87%||49.50%|
|Implied Win (Normalized)||53.02%||46.98%|
|Calculated Win Probability||56.61%||43.39%|
|Bet Size||Bet @ odds > -106||Bet @ odds > +160|
Coming from Group A, fourth-place RED Canids (1-3) face off against third-place PEACE (2-2) for survival. Despite losing to PCE during the group stage, RED are still slightly favored here, both by the market and by my model. I would even give them a slight bump relative to the market, but not enough to make a bet worthwhile.
PCE have both the strongest (Ryan “Aladoric” Gregory Richardson, with a 62.5% win rate) and weakest (Kiss “Vizicsacsi” Tamás, at 51%) players, while the RED squad are all clustered at 56%-57%.
However, the player to watch out for most in this match is James “Tally” Shute. PCE’s mid laner has the largest impact on match outcome of all ten players. Leona in the hands of Aladoric can be quite potent, as well.
PCE have had a very inconsistent starting roster. They may have found a configuration that works, but it’s too soon to tell if the team will truly click together. RED, on the other hand, have maintained a solid core squad, and all perform better than they did individually.
The two teams are remarkably similar in their margins of victory. They lead their opponents by very similar gold, experience, and objective margins when they do win. PCE tend to be a bit closer when they lose, but overall this is a push.
The largest skill differentiator is simply RED’s greater experience playing outside of their region. While Brazil may not be the strongest region, all of the RED squad have seen their fair share of games in other leagues, and have maintained their performance.
Vanya is the founder of alacrity.gg, where he leverages seven years of quantitative finance experience to build esports prediction models. He'll happily debate you on anything from math to video games to the impending subjugation of the human race by artificial intelligence.